Sarah Who?

It’s pretty clear that John McCain chose Sarah Palin as his running-mate to appeal to the disaffected Hillary Clinton supporters -- especially since Palin paid homage to Clinton and pioneer Geraldine Ferraro by name in her introduction speech Friday. What’s less clear is whether that will happen.

It’s unlikely that a pro-life, anti-gay-marriage gun nut of either gender is going to appeal to the left-wing fringe of liberal women who aren’t yet in the Obama camp. That leads to the next issue, that the choice of just any old woman could be seen as pandering.

See, the thing is, there are Republican women who people have heard of. Elizabeth Dole, for one. Some might go so far as to suggest that her service leading the Red Cross would appeal to middle-of-the-road voters who haven’t made up their minds yet. A choice like Dole would have shown an understanding of and respect for women’s accomplishments. A choice as random as Palin is akin to getting up and stage and saying "They're all pink on the inside -- just grab one."

That left-wing fringe McCain is seeking, by the way, will be more sensitive to the possibility of pandering than just about anyone. Those Clintonistas didn’t just want to have a woman in the White House. They wanted to put one there, themselves, by their own hard work, not by some ancient white-haired dude who plucked one out of nowhere and handed her the position as if she couldn't get it any other way.

But let’s say I’m wrong and McCain is right, and the choice of Palin will pick up women’s votes. So? That doesn’t mean he’ll pick up enough votes to turn the popular vote his way, and even if he did, that doesn’t mean he’ll win.

All of this brings us to the real risk of picking Palin: At that stage of the game, any move designed to pick up voters in any block other than state-by-state is an ill-conceived move.

Palin may have some appeal to working-class whites who preferred Clinton over Obama. And that may help McCain in the rust belt states of Indiana, Ohio and Michigan. But her presence on the ticket won’t help in Michigan per se as much as Mitt Romney’s would have.

Michigan, the only one of those three states that's not already leaning toward McCain, is key to McCain's chances. Assume that McCain wins Ohio and Florida. With Obama likely to turn Iowa and Colorado for 16 votes and running very competitively in Virginia for 13 more, McCain needs to win every other state that Bush won in 2004 and turn at least one blue state red. Michigan is his best and perhaps only hope.

But what do I know? Republicans over the last 40 years have made a habit of picking vice presidential candidates who are not ready to lead the country on election day, and it hasn’t hurt them much. (But don’t take my word for it; ask Dan Quayle.) In fact, the only two times I can think of that they did make a legitimate pick -- when Gerald Ford tapped Bob Dole in 1976, and 20 years later when Dole took Jack Kemp -- were two of the three races they lost in that time.