Kevin's NFL Picks, 2008 Season Week 2

I love football. And I love betting. Betting on football is like putting chocolate syrup on chocolate ice cream, especially when it's sitting on top of a chocolate brownie.

In other words, it's actually too much of a good thing. But that's never stopped anyone from partaking.

In that spirit, here are my thoughts on this week's games. Lines are the Friday morning lines from sportsbook.com. For the games I'm actually picking, my choice is listed first. As you'll no doubt notice, I'm calling these against the spread, not straight-up.

LOCK
I love the Chiefs in this one.

KANSAS CITY -3.5 vs. Oakland (O/U: 36)
Kansas City competed with a team that's coming off a 16-0 season. Oakland got blown out by a Denver team that just isn't convincing. Arrowhead is a tough place to play. The hook may raise some eyebrows, but the Chiefs cover it easily.

HIGH FIVE
These look like solid picks.

ARIZONA -6.5 vs. Miami (O/U: 38)
Miami still has to convince people they've improved since last year. Take the Cardinals and lay the touchdown.

NY Giants -9 at ST. LOUIS (O/U: 41.5)
Whither the Rams?

WASHINGTON +1 vs. New Orleans (O/U: 42)
Beating the Buccaneers isn't all that impressive.

Atlanta +7 vs. TAMPA BAY (O/U: 37.5)
The Bucs may well win this one, but it doesn't have to be by a touchdown.

CLEVELAND +6.5 vs. Pittsburgh (O/U: 44.5)
Six and a half is a lot of points for a potential playoff team to get at home. That over-under strikes me as a little high, too, BTW.

WILD CARD
I think I'm right, but we'll find out on Sunday.

Buffalo +5 at JACKSONVILLE (O/U: 37)
This is exactly the kind of game the Jaguars would win 22-20 by kicking their fifth field goal of the day as time expires. The improving Bills are getting a lot of points in this one.

WATCH OUT FOR THESE
Bet either side at your own risk.

NY JETS -1 vs. New England (O/U: 37)
Three months ago, if someone had told you the Jets would be favored over the Patriots on anybody's field, you would have said, "What, did Tom Brady switch sides?" Well, as it turns out, New England has lost Brady for the season, and New York has picked up another Super Bowl winning, Hall of Fame caliber quarterback in Brett Favre. So it's kind of the same thing. And we don't know enough yet about Matt Cassell or Favre's supporting cast to really know what's going to happen here.

CINCINNATI -1 vs. Tennessee (O/U: 37.5)
This is another one with a questionable quarterback situation. Will Vince Young play for Tennessee? Will he be engaged? Tennessee should be a better team, but you always have to watch out for home teams in intra-division games, even when the road team is complete.

CAROLINA -3 v. Chicago (O/U: 37)
As noted previously, both of these teams beat AFC powerhouses on the road last week. I personally think Chicago's win was more impressive, but I'm biased.

THE REST
I make no claim to know what will happen. I'm just helping you figure them out for yourself.

Green Bay -3 at DETROIT (O/U: 45.5)
For years now, we've been hearing this is Detroit's breakout year. It isn't any more true this year than any other. Still, you have to beware those home teams in division games.

Indianapolis -2 at MINNESOTA (O/U: 43.5)
The Colts are the better team -- when Peyton Manning is healthy. I'd be gun-shy about taking them after last weeks' stinker.

San Diego -1 at DENVER (O/U: 45.5)
I don't want any part of this one. Could be fun to watch, though.

SEATTLE -6.5 vs. San Francisco (O/U: 38)
A Mike Holmgren team should cover this one at home, but I'm going to wait a couple weeks to drink the Seahawks' Kool-aid.

DALLAS -6.5 vs. Philadelphia (O/U: 47)
Donovan McNabb is back, and he could make this one close.

Baltimore at HOUSTON
This one got moved to Monday night because of Hurricane Ike and taken off the board, although I don't know if that's in deference to the city or because of uncertainty about how the weather changes this game. I loved the Ravens plus-4.5, though.