Kevin's NFL Picks, 2008 Season Week 5

Once again, these are coming in too late to help anybody. Then again, lately they've been coming in too wrong to help anybody.

LOCK

DENVER -3.5 vs. Tampa Bay (O/U: 46.5)
Tampa Bay just isn't as good as their mediocre 2-2 record would indicate.

HIGH FIVE

NEW ORLEANS -3 vs. Minnesota (O/U: 46.5)
The Saints' two losses were games they had a chance to win. The Vikings' one win was a bit of a fluke.

Pittsburgh +5 at JACKSONVILLE (O/U: 37)
The Jaguars definitely aren't going to bother to beat the Steelers by as much as 5.

MIAMI +6 vs. San Diego (O/U: 44.5)
After each of their last performances, take the Dolphins and the points at home.

Indianapolis -3 at HOUSTON (O/U: 49)
Don't ever on the road team in a divisional game. Unless its, you know, like the Colts at the Texans or something.

Washington +6.5 at PHILADELPHIA (O/U: 42)
I'm technically not breaking my rule here -- the Redskins could cover and still lose. Besides, 6.5 is a heck of a lot of points to give a team that just took down the Cowboys.

WILD CARD

BALTIMORE +2.5 vs. Tennessee (O/U: 3.5)
The Titans can't win them all, and this matchup with a former fierce division rival smells like a trap to me.

STAY AWAY FROM

ARIZONA -1.5 vs. Buffalo (O/U: 44.5)
Neither of these teams has done much covering the last couple weeks.

DETROIT +3 vs. Chicago (O/U: 45.5)
I just might leave the Sybil-esque Bears in this category all season long.

DALLAS -16 vs. Cincinatti (O/U: 45)
You should almost always stay away from an NFL game with a line of more than two touchdowns.

THE REST

CAROLINA -9.5 vs. Chiefs (O/U: 38.5)
That's a few too many points to pull the trigger on the Panthers.

GREEN BAY -3.5 vs. Atlanta (O/U: 40.5)
Aaron Rodgers' uncertain status makes this one tough to call, even though the Packers would probably beat the Falcons with you or me at quarterback.

N.Y. GIANTS -7 vs. Seattle (O/U: 43.5)
Too many variables to make a call here.

SAN FRANCISCO -3 vs. New England (O/U: 41)
Can we make this the '89 49ers vs. the '04 Patriots?

RECORDS Last week (season)
Overall includes lock and high five picks -- I track my wild card picks for fun but claim no accountability for them.

OVERALL: 2-4 (9-9)
LOCK: 1-0 (2-1)
HIGH FIVE: 1-4 (7-8)

WILD CARD: 0-1 (1-2)