Kevin's NFL Picks, 2008 Season Week 3

Tough week. I love picking home dogs, but there's only one this week -- and they (the Packers) are pretty sorely overrated in this game. Guess I'll have to take some road dogs and sweat it out.

As always, lines are from sportsbook.com.

LOCK
This one won't be very close.

Dallas -3 at GREEN BAY (O/U: 51)
Green Bay is a good team that's overachieving. Dallas is an achiever. Cowboys will pull away, but the Pack could stick around long enough to push the total over 51.

HIGH FIVE
My solid picks of the week.

Arizona +3 at WASHINGTON (O/U: 42.5)
The Cardinals are finally looking like they're for real.

INDIANAPOLIS -5.5 vs. Jacksonville (O/U: 41.5)
Y'know, the Jaguars might be just not that good this year. Indy finally christens the tire barn (or whatever it's called) with a win.

TENNESSEE -5 vs. Houston (O/U: 39)
For all of their drama, the Titans put away Cincinnati pretty easily last week. Houston ain't Cincinnati.

N.Y. Jets +9 at SAN DIEGO (O/U: 44)
San Diego can't finish. Brett Favre loves Monday night. Nine is a lot of points.

Cincinnati +13.5 at N.Y. GIANTS (O/U: 41.5)
I believe in the Giants, I really do. It's just that two touchdowns is a lot to cover against an offense that should be as potent as the Bengals'.

WILD CARD
Cleveland +2 at BALTIMORE (O/U: 38.5)
Yes, I know I'm breaking my rule about picking road teams in divisional games. Shut up. They could lose and still cover, OK? Besides, that's why this is just a wild card instead of a high five.

STAY AWAY FROM
Bet at your own risk. Home team listed first.

ATLANTA -6 vs. Kansas City (O/U: 36.5)
It's possible that neither one of these teams actually knows how to win (although Atlanta has in fact done it once this season).

PHILADELPHIA -3 vs. Pittsburgh (O/U: 45)
On paper I like the Steelers quite a bit. But Rothlisberger's hurt and anything can happen in this in-state rivalry of a football-happy state.

DENVER -5.5 vs. New Orleans (O/U: 51)
They both lost big leads last week, although Denver pulled it out.

THE REST
Again, home team listed first. I'm not claiming to pick these games, just helping you out with my thoughts.

BEARS -3 vs. Tampa Bay (O/U: 35.5)
Carolina's probably the class of the NFC South, whence comes the Buccaneers, and the Bears had them down and out at their place last week. Griese or no Griese, the Bears' proud defense will bounce back.

BUFFALO - 9.5 vs. Oakland (O/U: 36.5)
I'm pretty sure the Bills will cover, all things considered. I just didn't want to lay that many points.

NEW ENGLAND -12.5 vs. Miami (O/U: 36)
And that goes double for this game. On both counts.

MINNESOTA -3.5 vs. Carolina (O/U: 37.5)
Played in a vacuum, I would guess the Panthers would win this game, especially against a quarterback (Gus Frerotte) so old his career actually started before there was a Carolina Panthers. (I looked it up.) But at some point their streaked of charmed wins will run out.

SEATTLE -9.5 vs. St. Louis (O/U: 44)
I stayed away from the Seahawk Kool-Aid last week, and they choked away a big lead and the game, which was very thoughtful of them as it made me feel like a genius. Good thing for Seattle that St. Louis is easily the worst team in the league. I love the over, though.

SAN FRANCISCO -4 vs. Detroit (O/U: 46.5)
This actually feels like a comfortable 49ers win. I guess I'm just having trouble believing that even the Lions could be this bad.

RECORD
All records are against the spread. Overall includes lock and high five picks -- I track my wild card picks for fun but claim no accountability for them.

OVERALL: 4-2
LOCK: 0-1
HIGH FIVE: 4-1

WILD CARD: 1-0