Kevin's NFL Picks, 2008 Season Week 4

Here are my hastily thrown together NFL picks for Week 4. It's not like these are coming out in time to help anyone bet, but then again, since no one actually reads this blog, it all works out.

As always, all picks and records are against the spread, and lines are from sportsbook.com.

LOCK
After last week, I'm riding my Titans.

TENNESSEE -3 vs. Minnesota (O/U: 35)
Tennessee seems to be the real deal. The Vikings still haven't impressed me yet.

HIGH FIVE
These should be solid picks.

Philadelphia -3 at CHICAGO (O/U: 39)
The Eagles are very, very good, at Donovan McNabb is unstoppable at Soldier Field. The Bears should be good enough to make this competitive, but they're not.

Buffalo -8 at ST. LOUIS (O/U: 43)
The Rams haven't come close to covering an 8-point spread this year; why start now?

Green Bay +2 at TAMPA BAY (O/U: 42.5)
Hey, 2008 is a green year, in the environment as well as the battle of the bays.

OAKLAND +7.5 vs. San Diego (O/U: 45.5)
For some reason the Raiders are responding to front-office chaos well on the field. Take the touchdown and the hook at home.

Arizona +1 at N.Y. JETS (O/U: 44)
Yeah, these are the kind of picks that happen when you have six teams on a bye week. BUT, the Cardinals stayed on the East Coast all week after Sunday's game at Washington, so hopefully they've adjusted to the time difference enough to play the entire game the way they played the second half against the Redskins.

WILD CARD
Hey, it could happen.

DALLAS -10.5 vs. Washington (O/U: 46.5)
My thinking here is that the Cowboys covered this spread last week, on the road, against a better team.

STAY AWAY
Bet at your own risk.

CINCINNATI -1.5 vs. Cleveland (O/U: 42)
Something in my gut tells me to take the Browns, especially because home field seems to be a detriment for the Bengals. But based on last week's performances and common scores against the Ravens, the math says Cincinnati will win.

NEW ORLEANS -4.5 vs. San Francisco (O/U: 48.5)
The Saints probably should cover, but the 49ers have proved resiliant lately.

PITTSBURGH -5 vs. Baltimore (O/U: 34)
The Steelers think they're the class of this division. The Ravens whomped a Cleveland team that gave the Steelers trouble. Five could be a lot of points in this one.

THE REST

CAROLINA -6.5 vs. Atlanta (O/U: 39)
The Falcons own two wins against the second- and third-worst teams in the league (Detroit and Kansas City, although I can't decide what order they should be in). Panthers probably cover this at home.

JACKSONVILLE -7 vs. Houston (O/U: 43)
Nice performance by the Jags in Indy last week. Still, I wonder if they will bother to beat anyone by as much as a touchdown this year. This is a rare game where I like the under.

KANSAS CITY +9 vs. Denver (O/U: 47)
You'd think the Chiefs would be proud enough to cover a 9-point spread at Arrowhead. You would think that, but if you have to bet this game, take the over.

RECORDS Last week (season)
Overall includes lock and high five picks -- I track my wild card picks for fun but claim no accountability for them.

OVERALL: 3-3 (7-5)
LOCK: 1-0 (1-1)
HIGH FIVE: 2-3 (6-4)

WILD CARD: 0-1 (1-1)