Brain Shuffle, 10/12/08

-- Kudos to John McCain for telling his supporters that Barack Obama is a decent man and good citizen with whom McCain just happens to have some disagreements. Funny thing is, that also pretty much sums up how I feel about John McCain.

-- Hey, Tom Dart, if the courts tell you you're in contempt for refusing to evict rent-paying tenants whose landlords had their mortgages foreclosed, just tell the courts they've given you so many eviction notices that you haven't quite gotten to all of them yet.

-- I understand parents who condone drinking among their teenage kids. But I also understand adults who don't condone it. And I really, really don't understand parents who would get upset at an adult who doesn't condone it. If you think it's such a great idea, you drive your kids' dumb asses around.

-- Not that I condone this sort of thing, but if you had asked me which American city was most likely to boo Sarah Palin or any other national candidate, I would have guessed Philadelphia even before it happened.

-- Don't look now, but Billy Mays is this generation's Ron Popeil.

-- If only the Blackhawks could have played as well as Pat Foley sounded broadcasting Saturday night's game on WGN.

Kevin's NFL Picks, 2008 Season Week 6

Amazingly, despite my hellish Friday night (post coming soon), I got these in a full 24 hours before games start!

LOCK

Baltimore +4 at INDIANAPOLIS (O/U: 38.5)

With the miracles the Colts have needed to notch their two wins, there's good reason to believe the Ravens will win this one outright.

HIGH FIVE

WASHINGTON -13.5 vs. St. Louis (O/U: 44)
The Rams have lost games this year by (in order) 35, 28, 24 and 17. So they are getting closer to covering these huge spreads. Still, they're on the road against a very good team.

ARIZONA +5 vs. Dallas (O/U: 51)
The Cardinals play much better in the Pacific time zone, enough to take the points and forget about it.

New York Giants -9 at CLEVELAND (O/U: 43.5)
It's hard not to believe in the Giants, and the Browns may be without leading receiver Kellen Winslow.

Cincinnati +8.5 at NEW YORK JETS (O/U: 42.5)
The Bungles are back, but they're more competitive on the road.

Miami +3 at HOUSTON (O/U: 44.5)
Sorry, Texans fans, the misery continues.

WILD CARD

Philadelphia -4.5 at SAN FRANCISCO (O/U: 42.5)
Something tells me the Eagles cover this one, but it's tough to lay points on the road.

STAY AWAY

Oakland +7 at NEW ORLEANS (O/U: 47.5)
The Raiders have been surprisingly competitive, but who knows how the will react to a new coach.

Jacksonville +3.5 at DENVER (O/U: 48)
Last week, the Broncos were laying 3.5 against a mediocre Florida team, and they allowed a garbage-time touchdown that made them lose by a hook.

Detroit +13 at MINNESOTA (O/U: 45.5)
The only question is whether the Vikings can score enough to cover, but that's a really good question.

THE REST

Carolina +1.5 at TAMPA BAY (O/U: 36.5)
This will go a long way toward determining top dog in the NFC South, which should be the Panthers, although they are actually cats, so that's a point against, on top of which you really want to be careful about taking road teams in divisional games.

Chicago -3 at ATLANTA (O/U: 43.5)
As good as the Bears have looked lately, the Falcons are too hard to read to make a call here.

Green Bay -1 at SEATTLE (O/U: 45)
Raise your hand if you actually care about this game. Yeah, that's what I thought.

New England +5 at SAN DIEGO (O/U: 44)
I kind of like the Patriots here, but the last time I went against the Chargers as home chalk I got schooled.

RECORDS Last week (season)
Overall includes lock and high five picks -- I track my wild card picks for fun but claim no accountability for them.

OVERALL: 4-2 (13-11)
Lock: 0-1 (2-2)
High 5: 4-1 (11-9)

Wild Card: 0-1 (1-3)

Bears 34, Lions 7: Yeah, But It's Just The Lions

Not much to say about the Bears’ latest win, except maybe that road wins in the division are always nice, even when they’re a foregone conclusion. So here are some random thoughts:

-- The Lions might not win a game this year. I'll be more impressed if the Bears beat the surprisingly competitive Falcons.

-- It feels like 34-7 is a more common final score for a Bears’ victory over the Lions than any other single score. But I seriously don’t care enough to look it up. (But they DID win by that exact score in 2006.)

-- I laughed out loud when the Lions challenged a fumble call deep in their territory, down 24-0, finally got the ball back after an exceptionally lengthy delay, and then, on the very next play, threw an interception that Charles Tillman returned for a touchdown.

-- Heck, I even chuckled a little typing out that description just now.

-- If Kyle Orton goes 24-for-34 for 334 yards and two touchdowns every week, it’s going to be a good season. And if it’s a good season, I might stop whining about how the Bears should be at least 4-1 right now and in control of, rather than merely leading, a division that will send only one team to the playoffs.

-- Great coaching move by Lovie Smith to throw the red replay flag and get Marty Booker a 30-yard reception in his stats, even though the Bears would have gotten essentially the same spot on a pass interference penalty. On the surface that seems like too much risk for no real reward, but with a 17-0 lead and no realistic chance of losing the game, a potential loss of a timeout is a small price for a leader to pay to ingratiate himself to the troops.

-- Truth be told, I only watched through about the middle of the third quarter, as my dish lost the high-def signal while I was recording. Last major thing I saw was the Lions’ touchdown on the heels of Deven Hester’s fumble. Looking at the box score, I don’t think I really missed anything.

Brain Shuffle, 10/05/08

Yes, brain shuffle is back after a several weeks' hiatus. (Two, maybe?) I could tell you where it went, but that wouldn't be very shuffle-y at all, now, would it?

-- I have to admit, I rather enjoyed hearing a smiling Sarah Palin tell me to "drill, baby, drill!"

-- That said, I'd still rather drill Jill -- Biden, that is. Does that make me a hopelessly hardcore Democrat? Vote in the left rail!

-- I never quite understood Steve Fossett's fascination with daredevil-ry. Now I really don't understand it.

-- Not that I actually believe in curses, but I can't help but notice that the Cubs still haven't won a playoff game since the Steve Bartman incident. That's 0-8 since he fouled a foul ball in 2003; 0-9 overall.

-- Ummm ... does anybody out there really want to take Jenny McCarthy's medical advice?

-- Here's how much I hate Michigan: I don't care how badly Illinois beat them, I still think they got a gift from the officiating crew Saturday on their second "touchdown".

-- Confidential to Orenthal James S. of Los Angeles: You just couldn't keep your dumb ass out of jail, could you?

Kevin's NFL Picks, 2008 Season Week 5

Once again, these are coming in too late to help anybody. Then again, lately they've been coming in too wrong to help anybody.

LOCK

DENVER -3.5 vs. Tampa Bay (O/U: 46.5)
Tampa Bay just isn't as good as their mediocre 2-2 record would indicate.

HIGH FIVE

NEW ORLEANS -3 vs. Minnesota (O/U: 46.5)
The Saints' two losses were games they had a chance to win. The Vikings' one win was a bit of a fluke.

Pittsburgh +5 at JACKSONVILLE (O/U: 37)
The Jaguars definitely aren't going to bother to beat the Steelers by as much as 5.

MIAMI +6 vs. San Diego (O/U: 44.5)
After each of their last performances, take the Dolphins and the points at home.

Indianapolis -3 at HOUSTON (O/U: 49)
Don't ever on the road team in a divisional game. Unless its, you know, like the Colts at the Texans or something.

Washington +6.5 at PHILADELPHIA (O/U: 42)
I'm technically not breaking my rule here -- the Redskins could cover and still lose. Besides, 6.5 is a heck of a lot of points to give a team that just took down the Cowboys.

WILD CARD

BALTIMORE +2.5 vs. Tennessee (O/U: 3.5)
The Titans can't win them all, and this matchup with a former fierce division rival smells like a trap to me.

STAY AWAY FROM

ARIZONA -1.5 vs. Buffalo (O/U: 44.5)
Neither of these teams has done much covering the last couple weeks.

DETROIT +3 vs. Chicago (O/U: 45.5)
I just might leave the Sybil-esque Bears in this category all season long.

DALLAS -16 vs. Cincinatti (O/U: 45)
You should almost always stay away from an NFL game with a line of more than two touchdowns.

THE REST

CAROLINA -9.5 vs. Chiefs (O/U: 38.5)
That's a few too many points to pull the trigger on the Panthers.

GREEN BAY -3.5 vs. Atlanta (O/U: 40.5)
Aaron Rodgers' uncertain status makes this one tough to call, even though the Packers would probably beat the Falcons with you or me at quarterback.

N.Y. GIANTS -7 vs. Seattle (O/U: 43.5)
Too many variables to make a call here.

SAN FRANCISCO -3 vs. New England (O/U: 41)
Can we make this the '89 49ers vs. the '04 Patriots?

RECORDS Last week (season)
Overall includes lock and high five picks -- I track my wild card picks for fun but claim no accountability for them.

OVERALL: 2-4 (9-9)
LOCK: 1-0 (2-1)
HIGH FIVE: 1-4 (7-8)

WILD CARD: 0-1 (1-2)

It Wasn't Supposed To End Like This At All

What the hell happened?

The team with the best record in the NL was not supposed to get swept -- let alone annihilated -- by the team with the worst record of all of the playoff entrants.

Yet there it was. This went beyond the Dodgers winning in 3 games. The Cubs and their mighty offense held the lead for a whopping 2 1/2 innings and had a scoreless streak of 13 innings between Games 1 and 2. Meanwhile, their vaunted starting pitching got rocked as they were outscored 20-6 for the series.

It's hard to say who was the biggest disappointment for the Cubs. At first glance, it seems to be Alfonso Soriano and his 1-for-14 performance. (Incidentally, if you wanted to prorate his annual salary per postseason hits this year, that would be like paying $17 million for each one.) Ryan Dempster is also a candidate, following his 14 wins at Wrigley by giving up seven walks and a grand slam to set the tone in Game 1.

But my vote actually goes to Aramis Ramirez, who went 2 for 11 with no RBI after a season in which he got a little buzz for league MVP. Soriano didn't have a particularly outstanding season, so his disappearance wasn't as suprising. Ramirez turning invisible was more akin to David Copperfield disposing of a 747 into thin air in front of a TV audience.

(I have to admit, though, that there was a certain poetry to Soriano ending the series by flailing helplessly at a pitch at his feet.)

There's actually plenty of blame to go around, as that mighty offense left a total of 23 runners on base in the three games. You can say it's unfortunate that the Dodgers scored two runs -- the margin of victory -- in the clincher on Saturday with two outs in an inning that included a very questionable safe call. But that doesn't excuse the Cubs from leaving all of nine runners on base in that game, six of them in the first four innings. They clearly had chances to take control of that game and at least extend the series, and instead were mystified by a guy who went 9-10 during the regular season.

So, what really happened is that the Cubs played scared. What they were scared of, I don't know -- perhaps it was the expectations -- but it was obvious. You could see it in each of the four errors committed in Game 2; you could see it in the pained expressions of batters sulking away from the plate all night Saturday. Rob Dibble insightfully noted that the Cubs tended to watch pitches go down the middle of the plate and swing at ones out of the strike zone. They were too scared to pick their spots and stick with them.

At any rate, this in unacceptable. Last year, the season was a success just because the Cubs made the playoffs. This year, they had the potential to win the National League and return to the World Series for the first time since 1945. And now all that's left for Cubs fans to do is hope the White Sox lose in three as well, so I don't get drunken 2 a.m. phone calls from their knucklehead fans.

Palin, Biden Palin' By Comparison

I finally got around to becoming one of the many millions of Americans who watched Sarah Palin and Joe Biden in Thursday’s vice presidential debate. Hey, give me a break -- when my Cubs are in the playoffs, a lot of things get TiVo'd, because you don't always know how long that's going to last.

At any rate, it's no secret that this debate wasn't really Palin vs. Biden; it was Palin vs. Palin. All of America was waiting -- Democrats on the edge of their seats; Republicans with splayed fingers at the ready to close over their eyes -- for Palin to trip and fall and not be able to get up.

But it didn't happen. Her delivery was a bit mechanical and she clearly stuck to what she had rehearsed, but she certainly didn't embarrass herself or her ticket.

For that matter, neither candidate was exacty hitting home runs out there. I felt that neither of these two performed as well as either of the candidates at the top of the ticket in the Sept. 26 debate -- in other words, Obama and McCain were both more appealing than Palin or Biden.

I did think Palin showed a lot of guts to stare straight into the camera and speak to all of America with conviction on the heels of the beating she’s taken in the press. It’s clear now that she’s just an average, ordinary middle-class American, who, like every average, ordinary middle-class American, has an oversimplified view of what it would take to run the country. She’s just had the misfortune to be the one of us who’s been called out on it.

My only criticism of Palin's performance (or, I should say, my only legitimate criticism of Palin's performance) is that she sidestepped several of Gwen Ifill's questions. And she should be graded down for that. But no more so than any other politician who sidesteps questions, and there are a lot of those. (For the record, my other, bigger criticism is that she consistently said "nucular" instead of "nuclear", which just grated at the inside of my brain every time it clamored out of her mouth.)

Biden, incidentally, did not look for opportunities to trip her up, as some Democratic voters were hoping to see him do. Just a gut feeling, but I'm guessing this restraint was by design. There is a risk that Biden would turn some people off by attacking Palin. Barack Obama, who does not make dumb strategic decisions, has grinded out a modest but reliable lead in the polls, and I would not be surprised if he put a muzzle on Biden to "push" the debate and not risk those gains.

In fact, the closest Biden came to attacking Palin was when he completely schooled her on the constitutional role of the vice president. (And that's not my opinion; you can look it up here.) His second biggest attack was not directly at Palin but more at McCain, when he complained that we have heard Palin talking about how much of a maverick McCain will be as president but have heard nothing about how he will be a maverick.

This charge carried a lot of weight from Biden because he did offer a lot of specifics in his answers, and for that I would say he scored a narrow win in the debate. Then again, I'm biased. If someone wants to tell me this was a tie, I won't argue. If you tell me a tie is as good as a win for Palin, though, I would disagree. When you're behind in sports, you can't trade score for score, and likewise the McCain-Palin ticket can’t afford to just hold their ground this late in the game.

Cubs (And Others) Playoff Preview

The Cubs magic continues, as even a loss turned into a win. By succumbing to the Brewers in the last game of the season, they let the Brew Crew into the playoffs and thereby set up a first-round matchup with the weakest of all the NL contenders, the Dodgers.

Yes, L.A. has been more solid since the acquisition of Manny Ramirez. The Cubs still have a much stronger lineup top to bottom. And much has been made of L.A.’s Game 1 starter, Derek Lowe. It’s true that he hasn’t given up more than two runs in a game for nearly two months, but five of those nine games were against some of the worst teams in the league (San Francisco, Pittsburgh, San Diego and Washington), and two more were against Arizona, which is not known for its hitting.

In other words, he hasn’t faced a lineup as potent as the Cubs’ in a while. He also hasn’t faced Ryan Dempster, who’s 14-3 at Wrigley. Advantage, Cubs. The bettors see it my way as well, installing the Cubs as -155 favorites in the opener.

Even if Lowe should sneak out a win, I feel the Cubs only need a split at Wrigley. With Rich Harden and Theodore Roosevelt Lilly on tap for Games 3 and 4, a split or a sweep in L.A. is very likely.

Add Carlos Zambrano, and the Cubs have the edge in starting pitching over a strong Dodgers staff. I also give the Cubs the edge in offense, bullpen and intangibles (crazed crowd at Wrigley), with the Dodgers getting a slight edge on defense. The most intriguing matchup is at manager, with legends Lou Pinellia and Joe Torre squaring off. I do think Pinellia has had more to do with his teams’ success over the years, but it’s hard to argue with Torre’s four rings to Pinellia’s one.

The Cubs will get by the Dodgers easily on their way to a National League title.

PREDICTION: Cubs in 4

White Sox vs. Rays

Since that other local team weaseled its way into the post-season, I guess it’s only responsible to give a preview of their series as well.

In short, the White Sox suck. They will go 3-and-out in the ALDS, and even if they should cheat their way out of the first round, they will go 4-and-out against either the Angels or Red Sox.

I like any of the other AL playoff teams at offense, defense, starting pitching, relief pitching and intangibles. And manager? Please. I’ll take the janitor over Ozzie (who, incidentally, I do not believe to be intelligible in either of the languages he purportedly speaks).

PREDICTION: Rays in 3

Brewers vs. Phillies

As long as we’re running down other local teams, why not check in on the Brewers? After all, they do often play in that grand stadium known as Wrigley North.

Unfortunately, I think they made their run just to secure the playoff berth. They are playing a Philadelphia team that is peaking at the right time. The Brewers can compete on offense, enough to make it interesting, but outside of C.C. Sabbathia their starting pitching is shot. And because of an incredibly bone-headed front-office decision, they are entering the playoffs guided by a manager with a whopping 12 games of major league experience.

PREDICTION: Phillies in 5

Red Sox vs. Angels

How the hell should I know? I’m 1,000 miles from the nearest coast, and even farther in terms of mindset. I’ll defer to the bettors on this one (although I do think the winner of this series goes on to the World Series).

PREDICTION: Angels in 5

Bailing On The Bailout

I think I like the message the House of Representatives sent today by turning down the $700 taxpayer bailout of major companies falling apart.

Treasury Secretary Hank Paulsen and a host of other experts rung their hands and warned of dire days ahead if Wall Street wasn’t bailed out. And Congress said, you know what? We’re willing to let Wall Street take that chance.

Somehow, maybe because of the closeness of the 228-205 vote, maybe because of the odd coalition of extreme liberals and extreme conservatives who killed it, but somehow, a message was sent: Congress is willing to approve a bailout, but not this bailout. The House told Paulsen, you and your ilk got us into this mess; we don’t trust you to dig our way out of it. You want a bailout? You do it on OUR terms.

Of course the stock market tanked as this was happening. This is not, as some would have you believe, the beginning of the end. Savvy buyers have taken advantage of other people’s misfortunes for as long as there’s been currency, and that dynamic will bring the stock market back around one day.

And besides, is it really going to get worse for the average American? Housing prices are in the shitter, consumer prices are going up, unemployment is dangerously high and money is as hard to borrow as it‘s been in a generation or two. And the worst thing that can happen to the bungalow bunch is that their long-time investments are going through a correction?

All that being said, I understand that there is going to need to be a bailout, and it’s going to hurt taxpayers. But I applaud Congress for not letting the first one that came along get shoved down our throats.

Bears 24, Eagles 20: Why Must You Mess With Our Hearts Like That?

Seriously, Bears? This is how it’s going to be?

You can’t hold a 10-point lead in the last five minutes against mediocre Tampa Bay, but you can go out and beat Philadelphia wire-to-wire?

This could have been a magnificent win that gave the Bears control of their division. Instead, it was a nice win in which an inconsistent team went against predictions for the fourth straight week, which sounds like the kind of thing that happens in a season that ends at 7-9.

Sure, the defense had a nice goal line stand. If they had played 60 minutes every week, they wouldn’t have needed it. And sure, Kyle Orton had three touchdown passes. He also pissed away a nice interception return from Kevin Payne, giving Orton an 11-yard field to work with, by throwing a pick of his own.

Who knows, maybe the Bears can only win on Sunday night. Or maybe they’ll go undefeated outside of the NFC South en route to a 12-4 record. Either of those theories make as much sense as anything else coming out of this team.

Lovie’s boys have two winnable games coming up, then get the Vikings at home before the bye week. They SHOULD come out of that stretch 5-2 and a force to be reckoned with. Giving their chaotic personality, they probably WILL come out of it 3-4 with an extremely irritated fan base.

The Spot Dogs It Once Again

It's a good sign when you order a hot dog and they bring you a steak knife.

Unfortunately, when this happened to me last night at The Spot in Uptown, it was not a harbinger of the meal to come.

The Spot is not one of my favorite places. It's stuffy, it's laid out poorly for people flow, and management packs in as many people as it can for an unending range of events. The idea is to offer something for everyone; the effect is to pander to any customer base with a few bucks in its collective back pocket.

I was obligated to go on Saturday night for Gigfest, a charity fund-raiser organized by a good friend of mine. While I was there, I stumbled upon a menu offering called The Ultimate Monster White Trash Hot Dog (or something like that) -- a dog, stuffed with cheese, wrapped in bacon, deep-fried, dipped in beer batter and deep-fried again, then served on a bed of french fries.

There's nothing in that list that's unappealing to me. Taken together, though, it's actually not quite as good as it sounds for several reasons:

-- First of all, the whole thing needed to be smothered in chili.

-- Second, all the deep-frying washed out the bacon, reducing it to a pasty goo that clung like pig-fat boogers to both the dog and my teeth. It's a shame, too, because the couple of bacon bits that fell off and were eaten separately were very tasty, but that flavor never came through in the dog. Perhaps the bacon should have been added in between the deep-frying cycles.

-- Third, it wasn't served on a bun. A fresh S. Rosen piece would have tied everything together nicely, and would have made it easier to eat. (They really did give me a steak knife, but trying to cut through deep-fried batter just makes it crumble everywhere. I ended up eating the whole thing with my hands, which should probably surprise no one after I've admitted to eating this thing in any way, shape or form.) Despite the mental image the description might conjure up, the white trash dog was nowhere near too large to fit on a bun, and if you're going to serve it on top of fries anyway that's all the more reason to drench it in chili.

All things considered, this dog was a lot of great tastes that didn't quite taste great together. It was OK, but like everything else about The Spot, was perhaps a bit over-sold.

The Debate: Slim Victory for Obama

I watched Friday night's presidential debate with a pretty hard-core pro-Barack Obama crowd. That made it tough to remain objective, as I found myself almost looking for ways to believe John McCain was outperforming Obama, just to balance out the universe.

Still, I have to give a slight edge overall to the Democrat. That said, neither candidate registered a knockout, by which I mean neither really gave an undecided voter a reason to pick a side.

I do think Obama did a better job of speaking to the average, everyday American, by stressing which issues (economy, health care and education) affect them most. That may have been only because Obama is far more eloquent than McCain.

I also thought Obama did himself a disservice with his constant interruptions of McCain to correct statements McCain made about Obama. His explanations were plausible, so any one of the interruptions may have been warranted taken by itself, but after a while the presidential thing to do is to rise above the mud.

And unfounded charges notwithstanding, McCain is a sincere individual who does genuinely care about the people he would serve. However, that didn't come through his stumbling rhetoric, so Obama gets the win.

I'm not the only one who thinks so. A CNN poll also gave Obama a slight win, although the audience had more Democratics to begin with. Still, that may be representative of the country right now. I've been watching state polls at Real Clear Politics since early this year, and as the economy has plummeted the last week or so, several states have been moving to the left.

Kevin's NFL Picks, 2008 Season Week 4

Here are my hastily thrown together NFL picks for Week 4. It's not like these are coming out in time to help anyone bet, but then again, since no one actually reads this blog, it all works out.

As always, all picks and records are against the spread, and lines are from sportsbook.com.

LOCK
After last week, I'm riding my Titans.

TENNESSEE -3 vs. Minnesota (O/U: 35)
Tennessee seems to be the real deal. The Vikings still haven't impressed me yet.

HIGH FIVE
These should be solid picks.

Philadelphia -3 at CHICAGO (O/U: 39)
The Eagles are very, very good, at Donovan McNabb is unstoppable at Soldier Field. The Bears should be good enough to make this competitive, but they're not.

Buffalo -8 at ST. LOUIS (O/U: 43)
The Rams haven't come close to covering an 8-point spread this year; why start now?

Green Bay +2 at TAMPA BAY (O/U: 42.5)
Hey, 2008 is a green year, in the environment as well as the battle of the bays.

OAKLAND +7.5 vs. San Diego (O/U: 45.5)
For some reason the Raiders are responding to front-office chaos well on the field. Take the touchdown and the hook at home.

Arizona +1 at N.Y. JETS (O/U: 44)
Yeah, these are the kind of picks that happen when you have six teams on a bye week. BUT, the Cardinals stayed on the East Coast all week after Sunday's game at Washington, so hopefully they've adjusted to the time difference enough to play the entire game the way they played the second half against the Redskins.

WILD CARD
Hey, it could happen.

DALLAS -10.5 vs. Washington (O/U: 46.5)
My thinking here is that the Cowboys covered this spread last week, on the road, against a better team.

STAY AWAY
Bet at your own risk.

CINCINNATI -1.5 vs. Cleveland (O/U: 42)
Something in my gut tells me to take the Browns, especially because home field seems to be a detriment for the Bengals. But based on last week's performances and common scores against the Ravens, the math says Cincinnati will win.

NEW ORLEANS -4.5 vs. San Francisco (O/U: 48.5)
The Saints probably should cover, but the 49ers have proved resiliant lately.

PITTSBURGH -5 vs. Baltimore (O/U: 34)
The Steelers think they're the class of this division. The Ravens whomped a Cleveland team that gave the Steelers trouble. Five could be a lot of points in this one.

THE REST

CAROLINA -6.5 vs. Atlanta (O/U: 39)
The Falcons own two wins against the second- and third-worst teams in the league (Detroit and Kansas City, although I can't decide what order they should be in). Panthers probably cover this at home.

JACKSONVILLE -7 vs. Houston (O/U: 43)
Nice performance by the Jags in Indy last week. Still, I wonder if they will bother to beat anyone by as much as a touchdown this year. This is a rare game where I like the under.

KANSAS CITY +9 vs. Denver (O/U: 47)
You'd think the Chiefs would be proud enough to cover a 9-point spread at Arrowhead. You would think that, but if you have to bet this game, take the over.

RECORDS Last week (season)
Overall includes lock and high five picks -- I track my wild card picks for fun but claim no accountability for them.

OVERALL: 3-3 (7-5)
LOCK: 1-0 (1-1)
HIGH FIVE: 2-3 (6-4)

WILD CARD: 0-1 (1-1)

Ho-Hum, The Cubs Are In The Playoffs Again

There are some teams -- the Yankees, the Braves, the A’s -- who, for long stretches of their histories, could be counted on to make the playoffs year in and year out.

Now Cubs fans know how it feels, with the team’s first back-to-back postseason appearances in 100 years. (And let’s not get ahead of ourselves, but you know what else happened for the last time 100 years ago …)

It feels pretty good. It feels like we have a real team. And it totally, seriously feels like an early bow-out is just not good enough.

By the way, I like what Lou’s doing with the lineup. Apparently there were some people crying that he had to play his starters for the integrity of the game.

But it’s not an all-or-nothing proposition, and he’s not treating it as such. You rest Aramis Ramirez and his gimpy knees a couple times. You rest Geo Soto because catcher is a grueling position (and next time, let’s try that BEFORE he gets hurt, Lou.) You get Kosuke Fukudome back in there and see if he can find his stroke again. You play Daryle Ward once so he can prove to his family that he really is on a big-league roster.

Lou’s first obligation is to the Chicago Cubs -- the players, the management and the fans, in that order -- not to baseball. Integrity of the game mandates that the guys on the field have to play their hardest, but it doesn’t mean you have to play the same guys 162 times. If anyone wants to complain about what someone else is doing or the last three games, ask them what they did for the first 159.

Buccaneers 27, Bears 24, OT: Are You Kidding Me?

OK, it’s bad enough that I had $25 bucks on the Bears on this game, and it should’ve been an easy cover. Forget that. This was a winnable game for a team in a division that may be up for grabs but will only send one team to the playoffs.

The post-58-minute-mark collapse by the Bears defense was inexcusable! Yes, you could have faulted Kyle Orton for not getting into the end zone in the first half on short drives, or for throwing a completely bone-headed interception that went for six the other way. The fact is, in the second half he put the Bears in position to win this game.

That’s all that can be expected of Kyle Orton this year. He had the Bears up by 10 with 5 minutes to go and by 7 with 2 minutes to go. This team is going nowhere if the defense gives up 80-yard drives in the last two minutes, commits stupid penalties and allows last-second touchdowns.

Vegas Made Me Sleepy

Yes, I haven’t posted in a while. It’s not because there’s been a shortage of material. I took a little trip to Las Vegas for my birthday last weekend, and I’m just now catching up on sleep.

But it was a good time. We met a high-roller at the Stratosphere sportsbook (who, by the way, was very impressed that I went to Vegas with me and three women). I had a drink in my hand the entire time. And I even hit on two slutty looking women, at about 2 a.m. Monday morning, when the room I was sharing with others was occupied, and I was playing nickel video poker to kill time, and the only other people within 50 yards were these two young women at a slot machine one row over, and every time they would put in their money and hit the button they would yell “GIVE IT TO ME!”, (and by the way that’s the slot machine button, not each other’s … oh, never mind), and after watching this performance for a while I finally decided that if I didn’t go over and at least try to talk to them, I might as well turn in my dick right now.

We also saw a really good comedy show, and the pirate show at Treasure Island, and played a lot of Pai Gao Poker.

At any rate, I’m trying to catch up now. There will be a flurry of posts today and tomorrow. Hope you enjoy!

Kevin's NFL Picks, 2008 Season Week 3

Tough week. I love picking home dogs, but there's only one this week -- and they (the Packers) are pretty sorely overrated in this game. Guess I'll have to take some road dogs and sweat it out.

As always, lines are from sportsbook.com.

LOCK
This one won't be very close.

Dallas -3 at GREEN BAY (O/U: 51)
Green Bay is a good team that's overachieving. Dallas is an achiever. Cowboys will pull away, but the Pack could stick around long enough to push the total over 51.

HIGH FIVE
My solid picks of the week.

Arizona +3 at WASHINGTON (O/U: 42.5)
The Cardinals are finally looking like they're for real.

INDIANAPOLIS -5.5 vs. Jacksonville (O/U: 41.5)
Y'know, the Jaguars might be just not that good this year. Indy finally christens the tire barn (or whatever it's called) with a win.

TENNESSEE -5 vs. Houston (O/U: 39)
For all of their drama, the Titans put away Cincinnati pretty easily last week. Houston ain't Cincinnati.

N.Y. Jets +9 at SAN DIEGO (O/U: 44)
San Diego can't finish. Brett Favre loves Monday night. Nine is a lot of points.

Cincinnati +13.5 at N.Y. GIANTS (O/U: 41.5)
I believe in the Giants, I really do. It's just that two touchdowns is a lot to cover against an offense that should be as potent as the Bengals'.

WILD CARD
Cleveland +2 at BALTIMORE (O/U: 38.5)
Yes, I know I'm breaking my rule about picking road teams in divisional games. Shut up. They could lose and still cover, OK? Besides, that's why this is just a wild card instead of a high five.

STAY AWAY FROM
Bet at your own risk. Home team listed first.

ATLANTA -6 vs. Kansas City (O/U: 36.5)
It's possible that neither one of these teams actually knows how to win (although Atlanta has in fact done it once this season).

PHILADELPHIA -3 vs. Pittsburgh (O/U: 45)
On paper I like the Steelers quite a bit. But Rothlisberger's hurt and anything can happen in this in-state rivalry of a football-happy state.

DENVER -5.5 vs. New Orleans (O/U: 51)
They both lost big leads last week, although Denver pulled it out.

THE REST
Again, home team listed first. I'm not claiming to pick these games, just helping you out with my thoughts.

BEARS -3 vs. Tampa Bay (O/U: 35.5)
Carolina's probably the class of the NFC South, whence comes the Buccaneers, and the Bears had them down and out at their place last week. Griese or no Griese, the Bears' proud defense will bounce back.

BUFFALO - 9.5 vs. Oakland (O/U: 36.5)
I'm pretty sure the Bills will cover, all things considered. I just didn't want to lay that many points.

NEW ENGLAND -12.5 vs. Miami (O/U: 36)
And that goes double for this game. On both counts.

MINNESOTA -3.5 vs. Carolina (O/U: 37.5)
Played in a vacuum, I would guess the Panthers would win this game, especially against a quarterback (Gus Frerotte) so old his career actually started before there was a Carolina Panthers. (I looked it up.) But at some point their streaked of charmed wins will run out.

SEATTLE -9.5 vs. St. Louis (O/U: 44)
I stayed away from the Seahawk Kool-Aid last week, and they choked away a big lead and the game, which was very thoughtful of them as it made me feel like a genius. Good thing for Seattle that St. Louis is easily the worst team in the league. I love the over, though.

SAN FRANCISCO -4 vs. Detroit (O/U: 46.5)
This actually feels like a comfortable 49ers win. I guess I'm just having trouble believing that even the Lions could be this bad.

RECORD
All records are against the spread. Overall includes lock and high five picks -- I track my wild card picks for fun but claim no accountability for them.

OVERALL: 4-2
LOCK: 0-1
HIGH FIVE: 4-1

WILD CARD: 1-0

Stuck In The Drink

I blame it all on Amber.

Amber, you see, is my friend and euchre partner. She sometimes likes to say "You're my boy, Blue!" to me when I do something commendable, like win a tough euchre hand.

It's a reference to the centenarian frat pledge in Old School, and it's funny because Amber's a good 10 years younger than me, making me an old man relative to her. We pretty much kick ass at euchre, so it's come up more than once.

Fast forward to Wednesday night, when I'm at Tavern on the Green with co-workers. I'm going over the cocktail menu, and there just happens to be an offering called You're My Boy, Blue. It's a mixture of Stoli Blueberi Vodka and lemonade. That sounds pretty good, and it would allow me to tell Amber, "Hey, Amber! I had a drink called 'You're My Boy, Blue' just like that thing you occasionally say to me." I order one up.

Now, what color would you expect a drink that's called You're My Boy, BLUE, and that's made from BLUEberry vodka, to be?

If you guessed pink, you're a lot better at this game than I am.

Here's what happened: The blueberry, as we all know, is the most egregiously misnamed food in the entire vegetable or animal kingdoms. Any right-thinking person would clearly call this thing a purpleberry.

And, when you mix a purple-ish liquid with much lighter-colored liquids like vodka and lemonade, the color gets diluted, so much so that ... well, that I end up with four righteous-babe co-workers straining their necks to the point of risking C-4 injuries for a better look, all the while whispering to each other "Is Kevin really drinking a pink drink???"

Yep. I sure was.

This naturally led to no end of fun for my friends Michelle and Kristine. There was talk of a new Facebook page called Flamingo Schweitzer; at dinner Michelle asked our waiter if my pork chop came with pink peppercorns; the laughs went on and on.

To top it all off, Michelle and Kristine accused me of drinking this unholy-pink concoction while wearing a PEACH shirt, even though it was actually ORANGE. (Or at least it was when I bought it. The way a manly man like me does laundry, it may well have faded over time. At any rate, if Michelle emails me the picture she gleefully took of me drinking my pink drink in my allegedly peach shirt, I'll post it here and you can decide for yourself.)

Speaking of being a manly man, I have to say in the ladies' defense that they did follow proper pink-teasing etiquette by handing me the tired line that I must be very secure in my manhood if I'm comfortable drinking a pink drink. You know, the type of thing you say to someone to let them know you're just playing harmlessly, whether it's true or not.

But they're right, damnit! I am secure in my manhood, enough so that I don't feel the need to prove to anyone how secure I am by drinking a pink drink.

After all that, Amber, you'd better win at euchre on Monday night while I'm away.

Oh, and for the record: I didn't share my fruity, delicious pink drink with anyone.

Panthers 20, Bears 17: Back To Reality

If you had told me before the season started that the Bears would come out of Week 2 with a 1-1 record, I would have said I'll take it any way I can get it.

But not like this.

The Bears were in total control of Sunday's game against the Panthers ever since Brandon Lloyd corraled a blocked punt and took it in for an easy touchdown. But they let Carolina turn the momentum in the second half and eventually steal a win.

Although it was Greg Olsen's SECOND fumble of the day that led to the touchdown that got the Panthers back in the game, and although the Bears consistently backed themselves up with penalties, I really blame Kyle Orton for this loss. He was not able to spread the defense by hitting receivers downfield, completing only one pass longer than 15 yards (on something like nine attempts, as is the best of my recollection from the constant Fox graphics chronicling Orton's ineptitude).

As a result, the Bears lost the field position battle. (The penalties did not help that cause, but considering that Carolina had 10 flags of its own for 65 yards, versus the Bears' 12 for 86, that element of the game was essentially a wash.) And that was the game: The key touchdown, bringing Carolina to within 17-13, was on a drive of a mere 26 yards, after Olsen's fumble.

For the record, the other scoring drives the Bears gave up were 4 yards (FG), 52 yards (FG) and 55 yards (go-ahead touchdown) as the Panthers only managed 216 yards all day long -- not exactly a defensive breakdown for Urlacher and the boys.

The play-calling was questionable, too, especially at the end. I will never understand why Lovie Smith and/or Ron Turner called that swingout pass on 3rd-and-1 with two minutes left and the Bears needing only another 20 yards to kick a game-tying field goal. This is football: If you can't move the line a yard and let your quarterback fall forward for a new set of downs, you're in the wrong game.

On the bright side, Lloyd had a good day with his touchdown and six catches on offense, one of them a jumping, twisting number reminiscent of what he used to do in Champaign to haul in Kurt Kittner's free-flying cannon shots. Kevin Payne continues to impress in the safety spot.

Overall, though, this was a disappointing day. The Bears didn't have to win this game to have a winning season, but giving away a victory you could have had is a major ingredient of a 7-9 campaign.

My Picks

Of course what you REALLY want to know is how I did in my inaugural week of NFL picks. First, some ground rules: I'm tracking my record against the spread. For my overall record I'm only tracking the Lock and High Five picks -- the Wild Card is a pick for which I refuse to accept accountability.

Naturally, I kicked ass on the Wild Card pick, not only covering but also winning it straight-up with the Bills' upset of the Jaguars. Not so much for the lock pick, where I got killed. Fucking Raiders. Do they actually like Lane Kiffin or something?

I did, however, hit with the Cardinals, Giants, Redskins and Browns to post a respectable 4-2 record. If you can do that all season and throw in a winning wild card every now and then, you will be able to make some money.

Brain Shuffle, 9/14/08

-- With the way that middle-class women are flocking to Sarah Palin, the best thing Oprah Winfrey could do for the Barack Obama campaign is to reverse course, have Palin on the show -- and start asking questions. She's perhaps the only person who could give Palin the grilling she deserves without being accused of sexism. It would be like one of those episodes of Law & Order where a hot chick criminal is about to get away with her entire evil plot by manipulating the gender card, until a hot chick prosecutor steps up and takes her down.

-- Interesting dilemma for Brewers fans, with the Ike-blasted Cubs-Astros series being moved to Miller Park for two games. Given that the Brewers have had the Cubs in their sights all year long, you would think Milwaukee folks would turn out in droves to root for the 'Stros. Problem is, Houston is charging hard for a wild-card spot, and Milwaukee is much closer to third place in the NL Central than first, so they almost have to grit their teeth and become Cubs fans for a couple days.

-- Great stat from PTI the other day (or maybe it was Around the Horn): Going into this season, Matt Cassel had 253 career passing yards. His opposing quarterback in today's Patriots-Jets game, Brett Favre, had 253 consecutive starts.

-- The U.S. Department of Transportation would like to apologize for the slowdown in bus service experienced across the country Sunday night. Apparently what gummed up the works is that it took forever for all those passengers to disembark the New England Patriots bandwagon.

-- It's not that 16-year-olds as a group are or are not ready to drive. Some are, some aren't. There's no need to raise the age at which you can get a license; there's a need to only give licenses to kids who actually pass a driving test, rather than just take one.

Kevin's NFL Picks, 2008 Season Week 2

I love football. And I love betting. Betting on football is like putting chocolate syrup on chocolate ice cream, especially when it's sitting on top of a chocolate brownie.

In other words, it's actually too much of a good thing. But that's never stopped anyone from partaking.

In that spirit, here are my thoughts on this week's games. Lines are the Friday morning lines from sportsbook.com. For the games I'm actually picking, my choice is listed first. As you'll no doubt notice, I'm calling these against the spread, not straight-up.

LOCK
I love the Chiefs in this one.

KANSAS CITY -3.5 vs. Oakland (O/U: 36)
Kansas City competed with a team that's coming off a 16-0 season. Oakland got blown out by a Denver team that just isn't convincing. Arrowhead is a tough place to play. The hook may raise some eyebrows, but the Chiefs cover it easily.

HIGH FIVE
These look like solid picks.

ARIZONA -6.5 vs. Miami (O/U: 38)
Miami still has to convince people they've improved since last year. Take the Cardinals and lay the touchdown.

NY Giants -9 at ST. LOUIS (O/U: 41.5)
Whither the Rams?

WASHINGTON +1 vs. New Orleans (O/U: 42)
Beating the Buccaneers isn't all that impressive.

Atlanta +7 vs. TAMPA BAY (O/U: 37.5)
The Bucs may well win this one, but it doesn't have to be by a touchdown.

CLEVELAND +6.5 vs. Pittsburgh (O/U: 44.5)
Six and a half is a lot of points for a potential playoff team to get at home. That over-under strikes me as a little high, too, BTW.

WILD CARD
I think I'm right, but we'll find out on Sunday.

Buffalo +5 at JACKSONVILLE (O/U: 37)
This is exactly the kind of game the Jaguars would win 22-20 by kicking their fifth field goal of the day as time expires. The improving Bills are getting a lot of points in this one.

WATCH OUT FOR THESE
Bet either side at your own risk.

NY JETS -1 vs. New England (O/U: 37)
Three months ago, if someone had told you the Jets would be favored over the Patriots on anybody's field, you would have said, "What, did Tom Brady switch sides?" Well, as it turns out, New England has lost Brady for the season, and New York has picked up another Super Bowl winning, Hall of Fame caliber quarterback in Brett Favre. So it's kind of the same thing. And we don't know enough yet about Matt Cassell or Favre's supporting cast to really know what's going to happen here.

CINCINNATI -1 vs. Tennessee (O/U: 37.5)
This is another one with a questionable quarterback situation. Will Vince Young play for Tennessee? Will he be engaged? Tennessee should be a better team, but you always have to watch out for home teams in intra-division games, even when the road team is complete.

CAROLINA -3 v. Chicago (O/U: 37)
As noted previously, both of these teams beat AFC powerhouses on the road last week. I personally think Chicago's win was more impressive, but I'm biased.

THE REST
I make no claim to know what will happen. I'm just helping you figure them out for yourself.

Green Bay -3 at DETROIT (O/U: 45.5)
For years now, we've been hearing this is Detroit's breakout year. It isn't any more true this year than any other. Still, you have to beware those home teams in division games.

Indianapolis -2 at MINNESOTA (O/U: 43.5)
The Colts are the better team -- when Peyton Manning is healthy. I'd be gun-shy about taking them after last weeks' stinker.

San Diego -1 at DENVER (O/U: 45.5)
I don't want any part of this one. Could be fun to watch, though.

SEATTLE -6.5 vs. San Francisco (O/U: 38)
A Mike Holmgren team should cover this one at home, but I'm going to wait a couple weeks to drink the Seahawks' Kool-aid.

DALLAS -6.5 vs. Philadelphia (O/U: 47)
Donovan McNabb is back, and he could make this one close.

Baltimore at HOUSTON
This one got moved to Monday night because of Hurricane Ike and taken off the board, although I don't know if that's in deference to the city or because of uncertainty about how the weather changes this game. I loved the Ravens plus-4.5, though.

Must've Been Some Holes In Fox's Lineup

Fox has been plugging its new show Hole in the Wall quite a bit this week. Cleaning out my DVR the other night, I happened to catch the premiere episode.

Gotta tell ya, it really never did get more interesting -- or complex -- than the 3-second clips shown on commercials. Contestants either figure out how to contort themselves through Hello Kitty-ish shapes in a moving Styrofoam flank, or they get knocked into a pool of green liquid.

That’s mildly entertaining for longer than 3 seconds, but not much longer. If this show has any chance to squeeze through the unforgiving world of TV popularity, it’s got to figure out how to offer something else.

Instead, it went the opposite way and took itself way, way too seriously. The deep-voiced announcer -- perched “high above” the action, as if that angle offered any deep insights into the action or anyone cared -- speaks of the contest as if destiny itself is riding on it. Sideline interviews with the contestants are conducted after each round by some chick in a black dress. Come on, Fox, we know you love to sell sex, but can’t you just have the hard-bodied lifeguards do something silly every now and again?

I would watch if they picked a random contestant from the audience to play the game. Trust me, hilarity would ensue. In all likelihood, at some point so would serious injury and a massive lawsuit, so that’s probably not going to happen. Still, they could give us some type of human connection with a brief profile of the candidates that goes beyond three bullet points and a video clip of a dude flexing.

Failing that, even a computerized animation of the recommended way to beat some of the walls would add some depth to the show. As it stands, though, this Hole is pretty shallow.

Bears 29, Colts 13: Seriously? No, Really?

Well, THAT was unexpected.

The Bears went into Indianapolis last night, home of a perennial contender in the AFC, home of the team that beat them in the Super Bowl two seasons ago, home of freakin’ Peyton Manning for that matter, and inexplicably controlled the game throughout.

The defense, in a very pleasant surprise, showed nothing of the porous model we saw all preseason long. They held Joseph Addai to 44 yards and consistently rattled receivers. Although they didn’t get a tremendous amount of pressure on Manning, they did sack him on the 1-yard-line to set up a safety.

With Lance Briggs’ 21-yard fumble return for a touchdown, that was 9 points the defense scored all day –- more than they will allow against some teams, if they play like this all season long.

And Matt Forte burst on the scene. It wasn’t just his 50-yard touchdown run in the first quarter to give the Bears a lead many of us thought they would never have in this game. His tough running also converted four third downs, keeping drives alive to keep the dangerous Manning off the field. Between all that and his 123 rushing yards, he was rightfully named the Horse Trailer Player of the Game, or whatever the heck NBC calls its award (I love John Madden, but I don’t always really try to understand him).

Going into the season, I was hopeful that if the Bears could scratch out a 2-5 record by the break, they might have an outside shot at maybe going a respectable 8-8, with some soft games late in the schedule.

They’re halfway there after the first game. The Colts win raises expectations –- a bit. I’d still like to see the run defense in particular stay at this level, with Adrian Peterson careening around the NFC North.

Next up is the Carolina Panthers, another NFC team that went on the road and took down an AFC power (the Chargers). So what does it all mean? Is the winner of that game a team to beat in the NFC? Is the loser exposed as a fluke? And heck, why can't it be both?

I’m not going to get too terribly excited, even if they beat the Panthers. In 2002, the Bears started 2-0 with a couple surprise wins, on their way to a 4-12 disaster. And that was after a playoff year. But Sunday night the Bears defense looked like the classic Bears defense, and I am going to enjoy it while it lasts.